“Julia Gillard writes in The Australian (23rd January 2012) that the nation can face the future with confidence, with a year of “solid” growth and an economy that will remain the envy of the world”. Sid Maher The Australian
I always get nervous when politicians get too confident. What is that saying, “pride comes before a fall”.
As Deloitte Access Economics notes, Australia faces two paths. If European disaster is averted “growth could be stronger than expected” as resource investment underwrites growth that restores retail sentiment and boosts home building.
Alternatively if Europe hits the rocks then everything could go pear shaped. The budget surplus would evaporate, unemployment would rise, and the Reserve Bank would have to cut interest rates quickly and frequently.
As a result, while it is easy to dismiss Europe as irrelevant, I have no doubt that Glenn Stevens at the Reserve Bank will be keeping a close eye on European developments.
Deloitte’s Chris Richardson argues that if a European meltdown does eventuate, Western Australia will have some immunity, as the resources boom will still chug along. However he singles out other states, such as New South Wales that could fare badly.
As a result while the 2011 housing figures are heartening, with Sydney faring relatively well (and significantly better than Melbourne and Brisbane), one needs to remember that Sydney being Australia’s financial hub, is arguably most affected by global developments.
As Chris Richardson says “Sydney is home to half the finance sector businesses in Australia. The sector accounts for one in three Sydney CBD jobs. If Europe blows up the finance sector cutbacks will be even deeper”.
So when sizing up the outlook for Sydney property over 2012, one needs to weigh up the supportive factors and the risk factors.
On the supportive front, you have “housing affordability”, which has improved significantly care of lowered interest rates. There is low unemployment (5.2% nationally, and 4% in Sydney’s Eastern Suburbs) and continued strong migration.
Possibly even most important, is that fact that housing construction remains weak. This has lead to supply remaining tight and this has shown up most in rental yields, which have surged (particularly in the Eastern Suburbs).
Of the risk factors, you have a seemingly “basket-case” Europe, which could lead to a global financial shock and you have China looking like it’s growth is slowing.
In conclusion, I do appreciate the grounds for caution, but I also see factors that should put a “floor” under the market. As a result, my expectation is that 2012 should be an interesting year, as the market is buffeted by both positive and negative factors.